Should I tighten stops on takeover targets? - January 28, 2011 by Harry

I thought I’d write a few words to round off the week. It’s been fairly quiet for me trading wise. I’ve been moving stops when I’ve had the chance and no new trades since Monday which was RBS. Today I had two stop outs they were punch taverns and Lloyds bank. Both making a loss. Lloyds lost me £7.19 and punch lost me £1.56. Not massive sums but losses never the less. Still losses are a fact of life in the trading world and I’m not disheartened. Sure I’d love to make a profit on every trade but if I did I think it would be dangerous. I’d get cocky and overconfident thinking I can’t lose, bet £100 per point and get wiped out in one trade. Nope not me, losses are fine as long as they are small, controlled and don’t happen all the time.


I want to respond to Spread betting traders comments about Northern foods. I know what your saying about the price tumbling if the share price falls through, I guess it depends on how worried you are about it. You suggest moving your stop tighter in case of a big price gap one morning. Well I would think if the price did gap from say 75 to 50 one morning then you will get filled at 50 irrespective of whether your stop is at 51 or 74. It will just mean you’ll suffer 24 points of slippage rather than 1 point of slippage. If you’re using guaranteed stops then slippage is not an issue and moving your stop closer is not a bad idea. I don’t know what to suggest for the best on this one, and even if I did know what to suggest for the best I can’t suggest it as that would be me giving you advice which I can’t do! I can tell you what I am going to do. I’m going to leave my stop as it is trailing at the super trend price which is 3xATR(10) away from the median price. If it gaps down so be it, it’s out of my hands, the same as if any of the other companies I have spread bets with go bust over night and I suffer massive slippage as the price drops to zero. If it happens it happens, it’s a risk we take. The only way to insure against it is use a guaranteed stop. We can also keep an eye on the news surrounding said stocks but who knows what’s going to happen. It’s for these reasons that I tend not to place too much emphasis on news stories. I used to try and trade the news like results etc but it was just too hard. I mean if a company reports good results why does there share price drop the day they are announced? Who knows? I know I don’t. That’s why now I try to stick to technical analysis an keep half an eye on the news but not too much. When I brought into Northern foods I didn’t know there was going to be take over talk and it’s turned out to be a bonus as it’s lifted the share price considerably.


I wanted to update you quickly with where I’m up to with the site speed issues etc. Well I think they may be fixed. I’ve made some changes and thinks seem to be going ok. I’ve not had any of the issues that I was having before so I’m hoping it’s fixed, and even without switching provider, woo hoo! ( I hope I haven’t spoke too soon there!) You may have noticed the forum members had been steadily increasing over the last few weeks. Unfortunately most of them were just SPAMMERs trying to advertise stupid things so I’ve been going through and deleting said offenders. I would be nice to have more forum members but I want people to join because they want too and have something useful to add.


We do have a new member who needs some help. Engulfing trader needs some help with proRealTime I will try and get some time over the weekend to help out but if anyone else can help him please do.


I think that’s about all from me. Hopefully next week I’ll post a bit more than twice as I’ve had a really busy week. Still I rather post less with more interesting stuff than more often with a load of drivel.


Have a great weekend everyone.


Until next time,
“May the markets be with you!”
The Spread Betting Beginner

Owner of Harry Ramsdens (Boparan) Bids for Northern Foods - January 24, 2011 by Harry

It’s been a busy day for me trading wise today. My position in Allied Irish bank stopped out for a £9 loss today. Silly trade really with hindsight. No real strategy behind it and yet again I’ve paid the price. Still we live and learn. One new trade today. I brought RBS at 43.525 with a stop at 39, and I’m long £2 per point. Well with my stop so close £2 per point is within my 1% risk tolerance for the trade so I figured I should go for it. It’s a super trend cross over buy and with a recent double bottom in price and I like the look of the chart, the only way is up. Here’s hoping it pans out.


Northern foods shot up today after the owner of Harry Ramsdens (Boparan)made a 73p per share cash bid. Good news for me. As far as I’m concerned Greencore and Boparan can battle it out up to £30 a share or more. Ever the optimist hey! You can read more about why Northern foods increased so much on yahoo Finance.


I’m still trying to resolve the slow site issues and have removed the forum updates from the main page. I think the forum is slowing down the site for some reason and this would also slow the main page because it contained the updates from the forum. When I have the problem sorted I’ll try and get them added.


For the last few weeks/months I’ve been posting almost every trading day. Well I have decided to tone this down for a while. Don’t worry, I’ll keep you updated with all my trades but I will only be posting when something exciting happens, like a new trade or stop out has occurred. The reason being is it will give me a little extra time to spend doing other things. Firstly I’ll be fixing the issues with the site that need to be addressed as top priority and it will also give me more time to spend in the forum and adding more relevant content to the site. When I get these things done and I start to have more time I will probably go back to posting on a daily basis, but until then it will only be if I have something good to write about, rather than the drivel I’ve been writing about lately. I hope you understand this and please do bare with me. Time is really tight these days!


Over the next few days can people let me know if they are still having speed issues with the site and when and where they are occurring. You can either e-mail me or post over on the forum in the website feedback section. Any details you can give me will help me greatly in resolving these issues. Thanks for your continued patience and support.


Until next time,
“May the markets be with you!”
The Spread Betting Beginner

Trading Allied Irish Bank - December 23, 2010 by Harry

Only one full shopping day left until a fat man in a red suit will be heading down your chimney. I hope your all set. I have to say if you’ve left anything to the last minute I don’t envy you fighting your way through the Christmas eve crowds. I’m sure that everyone who reads this is well organised and had everything sorted weeks ago, much like I did. I wish!


On to todays trading. With the FTSE not really doing much at all today most of my positions actually did quite well and I made a new trade. My start performer today was 3I Infrastructure. Not sure why, I couldn’t find any news about it anywhere. Still as long as it’s rising I’m Happy. I forgot to mention yesterday that I was toying with the notion of exiting my Northern Foods position early. I was thinking, if the proposed merger goes ahead then I might be better to get out now. The thing is this merger is only a proposition at the moment and is not set in stone. I also read in the news yesterday that the owner of Harry Ramsdens may be planning a takeover bid which would obviously throw the proposed merger out of the water. Therefore I think I’m leaving the trade alone and moving my stop in line with my super trend strategy as was the original plan.


My new trade today is in Allied Irish bank. The share price tumbled on news that the government gained the rights to nationalise the bank. With the all time low around the 26 mark I thought it could be a worth while trade. So I’ve brought at 33 with a stop at 24. I’ll be trailing the stop at 1.5ATR on the mid price until break even then allowing the stop to widen to 3ATR.


The Regus order that I placed yesterday hasn’t executed so I will be cancelling that. There will be more opportunities along tomorrow.


I’ve started a new forum topic, well a competition really. I thought it might be a bit of fun to speculate on the price that the FTSE 100 will finish out the year. It’s open to anyone and the last entry day is the 29th of December. I’ve already made my guess and believe me it really is a guess. If you’re not a forum member you’ll have to join to take part, don’t worry it’s free. There is no prize as I can’t afford anything, but who knows if my trading goes well and this website starts to get more visitors there may be competitions just like this with prizes in the future. Hey I’m allowed to dream!


That’s all for today. I’ll post a brief entry tomorrow, probably earlier than usual but I can’t say for sure.


UPDATE: It looks like the FTSE 100 has just tipped over the 6000 mark in live trading. Not as spectacularly as I though it would but hey. I think it also went through the barrier in the futures trading last night.


Until next time,
“May the markets be with you!”
Spread betting beginner

Trading Lloyds bank - December 16, 2010 by Harry

I’ve been busy with work yet again today but I did find a little time to research and made one new trade. It’s a super trend buy in Lloyds bank. Buy £1 per point at 69.164 with a stop set at 62. That now gives me a total of 9 £1 per point positions open. Not a massive amount but hey I’m happy enough with how things have been going recently and hopefully it’s a sign of things to come. Sure I’d love to trade more but to do that I need a bigger bank so maybe one day you’ll be reading this blog and I’ll be listing the numerous trades that have taken place that day. Until that becomes a reality I’m afraid you will have to put up with me trading the opportunities that I feel are right for me and fit all my trading criteria. Hopefully you can live with that.


I had a phone call from CMC markets today. A nice chap named Jamie called me to answer the various questions I had. I’ve listed them below as mini a questions and answer session with CMC markets.
Question: “What happens to my position in Northern Foods now they are merging?”
Answer: “The position will be closed out on the day the merger takes place. If I want to open a position in the newly merged company I will have to do this manually.”
I guess when you think about it this seems really obvious. Still it’s that question cleared up.
Question: “Why did I suffer slippage in the new CMC account and not the old CMC account?”
Answer: “The new CMC platform takes into account the volume of stock that is available when the trade is made. At the time my stop was triggered trading volumes were very low which is why I was filled at a worse price than my stop level. The old CMC Market Maker platform does not take volume into account when making the trade therefore I was actually filled at a better price than was available in the market place”


I did speak with him more, mostly about charting and asking why they didn’t hold off launching the new platform until had more features. He answered all my questions well and reassured me that more features were coming in the near future and that the back end of the new system is much better placed for constant improvements and enhancements. I think it was Big Al that said he was put off opening an account with them because of the limited number of instruments that are available. I think he said that they may be adding more instruments in the new year but I can’t remember for sure.


I’ll be keeping my new CMC account for a while longer yet to see how it progresses. The spread and margin requirements in the new account are certainly better than the old marker maker account which is definitely a plus. I’ll keep you posted with new developments from them as and when I learn about them.


Right that’s about all from me today. I think I’ve rattled on enough. I’m working on some new features with some new spread betting companies which I hope to bring to you shortly. So keep checking back for the latest additions.


Until next time,
“May the markets be with you!”
Spread betting beginner

A response from CMC Markets - November 30, 2010 by Harry

Well it’s been a fairly quite day for the markets today. The FTSE finished the day almost flat. I wish I could say the same for my positions. My biggest loser today was Persimmon. I thought it was going to stop out. It came tantalisingly close. My stop is set at 336, the current bid price is 338. Will it stop out tomorrow? Hopefully not but if it does it does. I just hope I don’t suffer too much slippage if it does. Hopefully the buyers will come to market and shoot the price up at the open. Maybe I should start a Persimmon take over rumour. Hey it almost worked before.


My star performer today was Northern foods up around another point or so. I should be moving my stop on that position again this evening. If I can continue locking in profit 1point at a time I’ll be a happy bunny.


You may recall I said yesterday “I’ve contacted Peter Cruddas the founder of CMC markets”. Well I had an e-mail last night from Robert J Allan who is the UK digital manager for CMC markets. Apparently he Is going to personally discover who should be responding to my questions and get some answers for me. I’ve had noting yet but at least I know (I think) that my request is now being dealt with. I’ll keep you posted on the outcome.


I posted a thank you on the trade 2 win forum which you can read here. In case you were wondering I’m SB_Beginner, PC at CMC Markets is Peter Cruddas. I wanted to thank him for getting someone to respond. I also added few lines about there new platform. Apparently they are adding screening tools in the new year so I look forward to seeing how they work. Hopefully they are good and I’ll continue to spread bet with CMC markets. I’ll give them another 6 months or so and see how they turn out.


No new trades. I’ll take a look for new trades later. If anything takes my fancy I’ll let you know about it tomorrow.


Thanks again to everyone participating in the new spread betting strategy development over on the forum. It’s appreciated as always.


Until next time,
“May the markets be with you!”
Spread betting beginner