Well here it s my eagerly awaited FTSE 100 weekly analysis. I didn’t get half as much time to do the things I wanted this weekend so those that are awaiting my updated spread bets list will have to wait just that little while longer. I’m hoping to get to it at some point this week but never say never.

Anyway onto the FTSE 100 analysis. Well it’s been another choppy week and when the markets dropped on Monday I thought the down trend was about to be confirmed but ever since then we’ve had a few days of rises. The 20, 50 & 200 day EMAs are all level with the 20 below the 50 but above the 200 so these tell us that there is no clear trend in the market at the moment. The way the chart looks at the moment it could go either way up or down so I will be looking for either long or short trades again this week, if I get the time that is.

For the people who are into pattern spotting it looks like there is a symmetrical triangle pattern in progress, but as for what that means I have no idea. I guess I need to do some more research in to price patterns. When I get some time I’ll look into them and add a new section to the technical analysis section so keep an eye out for that.

Well that’s it for this week, short and sweet. My outlook for the market is mixed which isn’t much use if you plan on trading the FTSE. Maybe next week will be different.

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It’s been a mega busy week for me since the weekend really. My Folks went out to Spain but my nan was in Hospital so I went back to give her some company over the weekend and then back to work which is hectic at the minute so I’ve had no chance to look for new spread bets. I probably wont get a chance to take a look tomorrow either as I have a deadline looming for the 30th April but I do intend to spend some time at the weekend doing a review of my current open positions.

You may recall I said I would be keeping a close eye on some of my more recent trades as they need to return to their trends for them to be worth while. Well I haven’t been keeping a close enough eye so I need to check the charts to see how they are coming along. The trades are all still open as none of the stops have been hit yet and when I checked them earlier they all still had a ways to go before the stops would be hit but that’s not really the point. The idea was that the trades would return to their trends and if they didn’t within a reasonable time frame then I would cut the trade and look for better opportunities. I just need to check on how the trends are doing.

That’s really all I have for my spread betting update. No new trades and I still haven’t had the time to expose my most recent trades. My plan is to make the necessary changes to my position logging utility over the weekend and then I should be able to display my trades for all to see. I’m sure I said I would try and do the same last weekend but other, unavoidable, circumstances dictated otherwise.

Not that I don’t already have enough to do but my FTSE 100 analysis will also be added at the weekend again.

Until next time,
“May the markets be with you!”
Harry,
The Spread Betting Beginner

If you are new to spread betting and would like to try it please consider opening an account with Capital Spreads or SpreadCo. It’s how I keep Spread Betting Beginner free for all.

Well the spread betting weeks just come and go and it’s time for my weekly FTSE 100 analysis yet again. The main day for the FTSE this week was Tuesday when it rose over 100 points. The question is was it just a retracement of the falls from the previous week or will rise continue? Well looking at the chart it doesn’t look too promising for the bulls. The price action shows a recent down trend formation, lower lows and lower highs. The 20 EMA has firmly passed through the 50 EMA but seems to be levelling out with the FTSE ranging the last few days of the week. If the FTSE falls next week and passes through the most recent low of 5576 then I suspect the FTSE will be falling some more maybe to 5500 or lower. If this does happen the it will drag down the 20 & 50 day EMAs possibly poking through the 200 day EMA. It will take a while but if this does happen then the EMAs will start to confirm the down trend that could potentially be occurring.

Chart Copyright of SpreadCo ©2012

My outlook for the week is bearish but having said that it doesn’t mean I’ll pass up a long position if a good up trending stock should come along. My rule is trade short in a down trending market, trade long in an up trending market but when there is no real trend anything goes.

I have to say I am glad I started doing my weekly FTSE analysis again. People who have been reading this blog for some time will know that I have a pension that tracks the FTSE and although I cannot profit from the FTSE falling I can try and wait out the down trends to make the most of the up trends.

If you read my last post you will know that I placed a couple of short trades in Avocet Mining and First Group. Both of these positions went into losses from the get go but first group has recovered some today and has crept into a slight profit. My Avocet Mining position on the other hand is still in a loss but I think I know why. I rushed the trade! It is a trend following trade and instead of waiting until the trend had retraced I just dived in and guess what the stock has been doing for the last few days? Retracing!

I think the retracement might be over as price rose today before falling back and closing close to the low for the day. Obviously nothing is certain in trading but if I could go back a few days I would be placing the trade today instead. Fortunately I left a lot of wiggle room in my stop and I’m still in the trade so we’ll wait and see how it pans out longer term.

I’ve also made a new trade today. There seems to be quite a few stocks that are trending at the moment and I’m focusing my efforts on finding those trends and trading along with them. I think I successfully proved to myself that the super trend cross strategy was only breaking even which is fine if you don’t want to lose money but don’t expect to make all that much either. As I said there seems to be a few stocks that are trending nicely which has surprised me as the overall market is really going sideways. I think it’s good to keep an eye on the FTSE to give a general sense of what’s going on and if it’s trending downwards only trade short and vice versa. When the FTSE is going nowhere or sideways then anything goes as long as it’s trending.

The new trade I have made is in Spirent communications. The price of this stock has been trending upwards for a while, the 20,50,200 EMAs confirm the up trend and price has just retraced from the 52-week high. Sounds like a good stock to buy so I did. Buy at £2 per point at 168.8 with a stop at 158. I made the trade with SpreadCo as they had the tightest spread and hopefully the uptrend will continue. It’s sods law that I brought at almost the high of the day but the important thing is price rose overall on the day. Hopefully tomorrow will be the same and it will surpass the high of today and keep rising.

Anyway that’s about all from me today. I’m hoping to get time over the weekend to expose all my trades that I’m logging in my position logging utility so keep an eye out for that. As always and questions about anything you’ve read on spread betting beginner or in my blog or about my latest trades then please do get in touch with me.

Until next time,
“May the markets be with you!”
Harry,
The Spread Betting Beginner

The spread bets are coming thick and fast again after my 6 months or so of messing about. I say messing about I’ve actually put a lot of time and effort into this website to keep building it up a bit at a time. I have to say that I think I’m developing a very useful spread betting resource (I’m so modest)which will hopefully continue. Most recently I’ve added a spread betting wiki which is a place where you the reader can become the writer. I don’t know if any of you out there are familiar with the wiki concept but it basically means anyone can add/edit any page within the wiki. So for instance if you know loads about technical analysis and want to share it with the world now’s your chance. You don’t need to ask me or signup or anything, you just add your content and that’s it. Other people can also edit what you have written just in case what you have written is not factual and obviously I will be monitoring what goes on there to keep the spammers away. Anyway feel free to add and change what you like. The more people that get involved the better the resource will become, which is the spread betting beginner way. Share what you know so others can learn!

Moving on to my own spread betting activities. I’ve placed two new trades today. They are both short trades to try and balance up my portfolio during these turbulent times. The first spread bet is for Avocet Mining. Sell £1 per point at 162.4 with a stop set at 180.4. Second is first group. Sell £1 per point at 197.77 with a stop set at 210. I’ve deliberately set my stop tight on first group as 200 is a support level and if this level does not get broken then I don’t want to be in the trade. Having said that it could be a temporary bounce to 210 before continuing downwards. What are the odds that the latter will happen and I’ll be kicking myself for setting my stop too close in a few days/weeks time. Anyway we’ll wait and see what happens.

Both of these trades are trend following trades, or at least that’s the plan. They are both making new 52 week lows, 20,50,200 EMA are all in down trend formation, ADX is well above 30 for both and here’s hoping the down trends continue.

Again I’ve logged these trades in my own position logging utility. I was planning to make changes over the weekend, so my trades would be publicly visible, but I took some time off instead. Hopefully I’ll get chance to make the changes this weekend. You’ll know when they are anyway as my most recent trades will be listed and I’ll probably post to make you aware of the changes.

All my other positions are ticking over nicely. I’m keeping a close watch on my recent position in Dixons and an older one in Regus. With Regus it’s really failed to resume the uptrend and so I think it will be best to cut my losses now to save the few extra pounds before my stop hits anyway. Dixons has dropped slightly today so it could be that the recent retrace is not over. I’ll probably give Dixons a few more days before deciding what to do as the position has only been open a few days. I’ll give it the rest of the week and go from there I think.

Right that’s your lot from me for today. I’ll post again later in the week when I have some more news.

Until next time,
“May the markets be with you!”
Harry,
The Spread Betting Beginner