Should I tighten stops on takeover targets? - January 28, 2011 by Harry

I thought I’d write a few words to round off the week. It’s been fairly quiet for me trading wise. I’ve been moving stops when I’ve had the chance and no new trades since Monday which was RBS. Today I had two stop outs they were punch taverns and Lloyds bank. Both making a loss. Lloyds lost me £7.19 and punch lost me £1.56. Not massive sums but losses never the less. Still losses are a fact of life in the trading world and I’m not disheartened. Sure I’d love to make a profit on every trade but if I did I think it would be dangerous. I’d get cocky and overconfident thinking I can’t lose, bet £100 per point and get wiped out in one trade. Nope not me, losses are fine as long as they are small, controlled and don’t happen all the time.

 

I want to respond to Spread betting traders comments about Northern foods. I know what your saying about the price tumbling if the share price falls through, I guess it depends on how worried you are about it. You suggest moving your stop tighter in case of a big price gap one morning. Well I would think if the price did gap from say 75 to 50 one morning then you will get filled at 50 irrespective of whether your stop is at 51 or 74. It will just mean you’ll suffer 24 points of slippage rather than 1 point of slippage. If you’re using guaranteed stops then slippage is not an issue and moving your stop closer is not a bad idea. I don’t know what to suggest for the best on this one, and even if I did know what to suggest for the best I can’t suggest it as that would be me giving you advice which I can’t do! I can tell you what I am going to do. I’m going to leave my stop as it is trailing at the super trend price which is 3xATR(10) away from the median price. If it gaps down so be it, it’s out of my hands, the same as if any of the other companies I have spread bets with go bust over night and I suffer massive slippage as the price drops to zero. If it happens it happens, it’s a risk we take. The only way to insure against it is use a guaranteed stop. We can also keep an eye on the news surrounding said stocks but who knows what’s going to happen. It’s for these reasons that I tend not to place too much emphasis on news stories. I used to try and trade the news like results etc but it was just too hard. I mean if a company reports good results why does there share price drop the day they are announced? Who knows? I know I don’t. That’s why now I try to stick to technical analysis an keep half an eye on the news but not too much. When I brought into Northern foods I didn’t know there was going to be take over talk and it’s turned out to be a bonus as it’s lifted the share price considerably.

 

I wanted to update you quickly with where I’m up to with the site speed issues etc. Well I think they may be fixed. I’ve made some changes and thinks seem to be going ok. I’ve not had any of the issues that I was having before so I’m hoping it’s fixed, and even without switching provider, woo hoo! ( I hope I haven’t spoke too soon there!) You may have noticed the forum members had been steadily increasing over the last few weeks. Unfortunately most of them were just SPAMMERs trying to advertise stupid things so I’ve been going through and deleting said offenders. I would be nice to have more forum members but I want people to join because they want too and have something useful to add.

 

We do have a new member who needs some help. Engulfing trader needs some help with proRealTime I will try and get some time over the weekend to help out but if anyone else can help him please do.

 

I think that’s about all from me. Hopefully next week I’ll post a bit more than twice as I’ve had a really busy week. Still I rather post less with more interesting stuff than more often with a load of drivel.

 

Have a great weekend everyone.

 

Until next time,
“May the markets be with you!”
Harry,
The Spread Betting Beginner

ProRealTrend Detection! - December 21, 2010 by Harry

I was a little bored with work today, not that I should be, I have loads to do. I was looking for new trades and none took my fancy according to my super trend strategy, So I had a bit of a play with proRealTime. I noticed they have a feature called ProRealTrend Detection. Has anyone looked at this before. I took a quick look and couldn’t really make head nor tail of it. It attempts, in some way, to give a list of instruments that are close to support and resistance levels. The thing is I don’t think it’s particularly clear what all the lines that it adds to the chart actually mean. If anyone has any clue what so ever please let me know. Probably best to post on the forum if you can. I can see there being a lot of replies and I don’t think adding them all as comments will suffice. If I get chance I’ll start a new topic. UPDATE – I’ve started a ProRealTrend Detection Help! topic on the forum.

 

Not much happening with my trades today. Most are up slightly. Punch Taverns is now around 10 points in profit. I checked last night and I managed to move my stop level by 4 points to reduce my risk on the position. I guess it’s probably a good time of the year for pubs etc. Everyone having a festive drink or two, if your not driving why not have three or four. Keep drinking and keep Punch Taverns share price rising 😉 everyone’s a winner.

 

The FTSE has had it’s best day for a while, up around 60 points. I have to say it’s still in the back of my mind whether or not the FTSE will pass 6000 before the end of the year. It’s certainly coming close. I guess in two weeks time we’ll know the answer to the question. After that it will be time to start speculating where the FTSE will end up at the end of 2011. Still there’s a few trading days to go before then so I don’t thing I’ll be trying to look that far ahead.

 

I may get some time later to look for new trades but nothing so far. As always you can keep tabs on my latest trades on my spread betting trades page. You can also see big Als latest trades. I have to say I’m very impressed with his trading. He’s doing very well nearly doubling his account balance in less than a year. Hopefully I haven’t jinxed anything for him. Keep up the good work Big Al.

 

That’s all for today.

 

Until next time,
“May the markets be with you!”
Spread betting beginner

Two new spread bets in one week! - December 8, 2010 by Harry

A pretty mediocre day in the markets. Not much happening. Most of my positions fell back a little. Persimmon fell a few points (currently down around 4 points). Still I can handle a 4 point drop if it’s preceded with a 30 point rise. I could definitely get used to it 😉

 

I’ve made another new trade today. I can’t believe it two trades inside a week. I waited ages for a trade then two opportunities come along at once. The new trade is Punch taverns. It’s a super trend cross with a possible bounce off support. I brought at 67.2 with a stop at 59. Luckily for me I brought just before the price dropped 2 points, doh! Still if I new it was going to drop I’d be a millionaire already.

 

There isn’t really much else to report for the moment. Which is probably a good thing as I don’t have much time anyway. I posted on the forum to try and keep the new spread betting strategy moving along. Let me know what you think about my suggestion. If you want to join in the discussion you need to register on the spread betting forum.

 

Until next time,
“May the markets be with you!”
Spread betting beginner

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