I don’t know if anyone else has been keeping up to date with the trading academy that is being run by a well know spread betting firm but it seems that they are doing a good job of teaching their traders how to lose.

Obviously it’s all just a clever marketing ploy for the spread betting firm and they have no real interest in who wins or loses as long as they get more punters signed up to their account as a results. I just think it’s highly amusing that they plug the fact that they think they can teach ‘anyone’ to trade. I however think different. If they could teach anyone to trade then surely by now some of them would be showing signs of consistency rather than only losing money.

Now I can’t really talk because for all my own experience of spread betting I have still yet to turn a profit. The difference is that I have had no professional tuition and do not claim that I will ever make a success of trading but hope that one day I might. The Spread betting firm however make the bold claim that their experts can teach anyone to trade.

The latest video (Week 5) sees John ‘Mac’ exiting the competition. In the video he states that the experience has given him the confidence to go on and trade for himself. I was surprised to hear him say that since he mainly made losses in the weeks that he was there. Then there is Shazad. He qualified for the final by making over £5000 in one week. He actually made around £8000 so and 8% return on investment for one week on a £100k bank. You have to watch carefully though as he says he made £8k in one FX trade buy trading £1000 per point. WTF £1k per point is a huge gamble in my opinion especially on FX where prices can easily move 100 pips in the blink of an eye. I’d love to know his risk management strategy on that trade. I like to stick to 1% so that would be a max risk of £1000 on a £100k bank so 1 pip at £1000 per point. I suspect I know his risk management strategy, HE DIDN’T HAVE ONE.

In the summary Ashraf Laidi, and Jackie Chan, sorry I mean James Chen, simply brush over the fact that Shazad risked £1000 per point on one trade and he automatically made the final. Personally I think he should’ve been kicked out for a stupidly massive risk on one trade. Anyway it will be interesting to know who the winner of the £100k prize is and I wonder if they will trade with the money once they have it. It Shazad wins I wonder if he will trade £1000 per point with his own money. I highly doubt it.

Anyway I know I’ve been away for quite some time but I will be back soon ish. I can’t give any definite dates yet but trust me I’m not gone yet.

I also spotted that Chris Chillingworth has moved form being the spread trader to SpreadBetBeginner.co.uk. He looks like he’s making good progress so be sure to check him out if you get the time.

There can be no doubting the precarious nature of the global economy, especially as the spectre of financial crisis continues to haunt the eurozone and the U.S.. Those who consider this volatility as being prohibitive to financial trading do not understand the nature of the markets, however, as flexible methods of investment allow individuals to profit regardless of the prevailing economic climate. Financial spreadbetting provides an example of a trading method that is especially suited to a depressed and unpredictable market, through which investors can forecast price movements and profit regardless of whether they rise or fall.

Why Spreadbetting is a Viable Trading Method in 2012

While spreadbetting carries risk just like any other method of trading, it is extremely compatible with volatile financial markets. This at least enables investors to minimize their risk while trading, while improving their chances of making a profit. Consider the following advantages of spreadbetting in the current economic climate: –

• Trade a Wide Choice of Financial Instruments: – Not only is financial spread betting a type of derivative product that trades on the margin of price movements, but it is also available across a choice of instruments. You can spreadbet with currency pairs, commodities and indices, and execute individual trades based on your knowledge of the market in question. This flexibility allows you develop a wide trading portfolio, which can be extremely beneficial during times of economic climate. Margin based spread betting also enables you to trade without the burden of ownership, which can be hugely beneficial when a swift exit strategy is required.
• Profit in Volatile Markets Regardless of the Economic Climate: In terms of spread betting on the forex market, it is important the understand the advantages offered when trading individual currency pairs. The forex market is renowned for being exceptionally volatile, which means that the price of specific currencies can shift without warning and in real time. The act of spread betting, however, allows you to fully utilize your market knowledge and trading philosophy to predict these movements and make profitable transactions. While each individual financial crisis may differ, the individual laws that govern change within the market remain unchanged, and spread betting is the ideal trading method to profit from accurate forecasts.
• How Spread betting is Supported by Modern Technology: In such a depressed and constantly changing global economy, you must seek out every possible advantage available to help you succeed as a profitable trader. Fortunately technological advancement has led to the development of numerous online trading platforms, the vast majority of which are compatible with spread betting strategy and live market transactions. The MetaTrader 4 platform provides a relevant case in point, as it not only gives you access to a number of technical indicators but also allows you to use expert advisers and implement automated spread betting strategies.

They say you should take a complete break from spread betting from time to time and that’s exactly what I have been doing. I’ve been spread betting off an on for the last three years with varying levels of success and decided that it was time for a complete break. There have also been other personal matters that have contributed to my reason for taking a break and unfortunately that is all I will be saying about the personal matters. I’m usually pretty open and honest and I pride myself on that but there are just some things that are far to personal to share with the rest of the world. Sorry for that but I can’t share this time. All I can say is that things look to be getting better and I will be returning to some form of normal spread betting and blogging about it soon. I would assume people that used to be regular readers will have given up waiting for me to post an update so I’m sorry for that but hopefully I will be able to win you back over the coming weeks.

My plan is to try to start again using the experiences and knowledge that I’ve picked up along the way to help me with my spread betting. I plan to take a much longer term view on my trades and will be studying up on fundamental analysis to pick my trades and then use technical analysis to determine my entries and exits. As always I’ll do my level best to share the things that I learn and will probably create a new section to contain my findings on fundamental analysis. It’s going to take me a while to get back to normal but I’ll get there. As always and help that anyone can offer will be greatly appreciated. I have some new freebies to give away for any help offered and the reward for help will depend on the level of effort that goes into the help. If you’re interested then please do contact me and we can go from there.

Right that’s all from me for now. I just wanted to let anyone who’s interested know that I am still here and will be for the foreseeable future. It’s time to make some serious money from spread betting, time will tell if it happens or not. I’m sure it will.

Until next time,
“May the markets be with you!”

Harry

The global economy and the uptrend in developed-world stock markets since early 2009 are in danger. The possibility of a collapse in the Eurozone is creating enormous uncertainty and contributing to slowing growth well beyond its borders, including in both the UK and the US. A co-ordinated effort from the Eurozone’s stronger members, principally Germany, is needed to prevent disaster befalling its weaker ones, including Portgual and Italy and Spain. At the same time, central banks need to pump more liquidity into the financial system, in the US, Japan, in the UK and in Europe.

I do not believe there will be a disastrous outcome in the Eurozone and that, in the final analysis, the instinct for collective self-preservation will prevail. Once the next serious round of money printing gets underway across the world, I am expecting another big rally in global equities. Until this is confirmed, my trading stance on stocks is fairly cautious.

S&P 500

At the start of June, the Dow Theory gave a sell-signal. This venerable branch of technical analysis – which compares the behaviour of the Dow Industrial and Dow Transport Averages – has helped predict many market declines and recessions over the last 110 years. The average loss in the S&P 500 following a Dow-theory sell-signal is 14.8% over six months.

While US stocks have bounced back since this signal, big risks remain. Given the S&P’s dear valuation, I believe that a sustained resumption of its bull market since 2009 will require more printed money from the Federal Reserve and progress towards a resolution of the European crisis. Still, with the index currently above its 55-day exponential moving average, I am not seeking short positions for now, despite my view that the S&P could retest 1268 this summer.

FTSE 100

The FTSE offers much better value right now than the likes of the US equity indices. According to one of the most successful valuation models of all – ShareMaestro – the UK large-cap index is currently worth around 8700, compared to its actual present value of 5600. The necessary catalyst for the FTSE in order to get some way towards that level is, I believe, a major bout of monetary easing from the big central banks.

The Bank of England is already poised to inject further liquidity into the flagging UK economy, but it is America’s Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank that matter more here. With the index currently just above its 200-day simple moving average, I have a slight bullish bias. So long as the market meets this criterion, I would buy bounces off the 13-day exponential moving average currently positioned around 5430.

IBEX 35

I do not see Spain leaving the Eurozone, nor any other country for that matter, apart from Greece. Ultimately, it is going to be less costly for Germany and for other nations if the world’s twelfth largest economy remains within the single-currency area. Spanish stocks – which include international household name brands like Zara-owner Inditex, Telefonica and Repsol IPF – already offer potential opportunities to longer-term value investors. The dividend yield on the IBEX 35 recently touched 8.4%, its second highest level in 25 years.

One issue with investing directly in Spanish stocks is currency-risk. I firmly believe that in order to survive, the Euro will likely have to cheapen versus many currencies, including sterling. However, spread bets are quoted in sterling and so do not suffer from this disadvantage.

While the IBEX has bounce from its early June lows at 5988, it has yet to surmount its 21-week EMA. Were that to happen, I would be much more willing to believe that we were in the embryonic stages of a new bull market. In the meantime, I’d be looking to short drops through the 21-day EMA. A revisit of the lows is not out of the question.

Nikkei 225

Japan’s stock market is a world leader when it comes to producing disappointments. Equities in the land of the rising sun have had countless false dawns during their long bear market since 1990. It would take a brave man to declare the Nikkei’s slump as having ended at the early-June lows of 8239. Still, it is possible that the Nikkei could surge back towards the 10000 level once the next round of global money-printing starts up.

I would be much more inclined to take long positions in the Nikkei as and when it got back above its 21-week exponential moving average, currently at 9001. Until that time, I would use the daily chart and go short each time it dropped below its 21-day EMA.

For more insightful commentary on the markets and all things spreadbetting visit www.spreadbetmagazine.com

I have absolutely nothing to report on my own spread betting because I just haven’t had the time to go looking for new trading opportunities. I didn’t even get chance to update with my latest analysis of the FTSE. I should get some time to do it this weekend as I’ll be spending a fair bit of time on the train traveling so keep checking for the latest updates.

If you are a regular spread bettor or trader then you may have noticed the launch of the new Spread Bet Magazine a few months ago. If you haven’t had chance to take a look at it yet I suggest you do. Each month it has articles from regular writers such as Robbie Burns (The Naked Trader), Evil Knievel aka Simon Cawkwell and Dominic Picarda plus a host of other articles from various other writes. Don’t worry if you’re not a spread bettor as it’s aimed at traders in general but has a spread betting and CFD trading edge to all the articles. The best thing of all it’s completely free each and every month. There’s no monthly subscription to pay at all and if you submit your e-mail address in the box provided on the right you can get the latest magazine sent directly to your inbox each and every month.

In the latest June edition of the magazine there is an interview with Simon Denham, CEO of Capital Spreads and he reveals some spread betting secrets and dispels some common myths about spread betting. You can still read the June edition of the magazine by going to the spread bet magazine website www.spreadbetmagazine.com. If you haven’t already I suggest you take a look.

Hopefully there will be more spread betting from me next week. I just haven’t had the time this week to dedicate to it. Probably for the best anyway since the last FTSE update I did I was looking for short positions. I’m sure if I’d placed any shorts since then with the FTSE rallying well over the last few days I would’ve been stopped out. Mind you with the rally looking like it might have run out of steam and the possibility of the down trend still being in action it could be a good time to go short. Well see what my FTSE analysis shows up over the weekend and I’ll go from there.