Well another turbulent week for the FTSE 100 index this time on the positive side. After my suggestion that the market may open down after the bank holidays I’m left with egg on my face as the FTSE had two days of strong rises before falling back a little today. Any suggestion that the markets are about to turn and form a new uptrend however would be premature to say the least.

Looking at the chart the recent upward moves could merely be a retracement of the previous falls a few weeks ago which could potentially signal the ideal time to go short and sell the rally. All the technicals still indicate weakness in the FTSE with the 50 & 200 EMAs pointing downwards. The 20 day EMA has turned up slightly which is hardly surprising after the two days of strong rallies. ADX value is still high at 32 with DI- above DI+ however the ADX value has started to point down. Visually the down trend is still in force with the series of lower lows and lower highs yet to be broken.

If we take a look at a longer time frame chart, weekly instead of daily we can also see that the down trend is still in force with the sequence of lower lows and lower highs yet to be broken.

My outlook for the days/ weeks ahead is still bearish especially with the Greek election due to take place next Sunday the 17th June. In fact if I could trade the FTSE within my risk criteria I probably would go short on Monday. I suspect the recent euphoria of Wednesdays and Thursdays rises will be short lived and prices will continue to slide possibly with the Greek elections being a catalysis, dependent on the result of course.

If you do decide to trade make sure you only spread bet with money you can afford to lose. Although spread betting has the potential to make you rich you might just go broke trying to get there.

Spread Betting Action

In other news I closed out my enterprise inns position this week. After looking at the chart it suspect the uptrend may be over. A new series of lower lows and lower highs has started to emerge which I don’t like the look of and as the saying goes “The trend is your friend until the bend in the end”. So at the moment I’m out of the market completely. I haven’t had a lot of time this week to look for new trades either with it being my first week back at work and all. Hopefully next week I’ll have some more time and will be able to find some good trades. I’ll keep you posted with how it goes.

Well it’s certainly been a busy time in the markets while I’ve been away. I was reading back through my FTSE analysis for the 11th May and it seems my suggestions of an impeding down trend have come true. The markets spent the five days moving downwards only confirming the downwards momentum further. Then I went on holiday and the markets have been consolidating somewhat between 5400 and 5260. The 20, 50 and 200 day EMAs are all now in down trend formation with the 20 below the 50 and 50 below the 200 and they are all pointing downwards indicating that the downward move will be continuing. There is also a lot of news floating around from the US and Asian markets that I think will cause the FTSE to slide when it opens again on Wednesday. Therefore this means that positions to look for this week are short only. It also means that I may look to exit my long position in enterprise inns. I’m not completely decided on that yet though. It seems to be holding its own in these tough times and could well prove to be a good stock that bucks the trend of this downwards move. I’m going to have to think about this some more and make up my mind by the end of the week.

Just to add further to confirmation of the down trend the 14 day ADX value is at 36 and climbing. Plus the negative Direction Index is way above the positive directional index. I would say this is further confirmation that the down trend has further to run yet. I wonder if this has anything to do with Greece and the election that is due to happen on the 17th June? Maybe the markets already know something we don’t! It wouldn’t surprise me if they do. I don’t know if others have noticed that certain world events always seem to coincide with moves in the market, or is it that the market moves coincide with world events? There’s one for all the conspiracy theorists out there.

My outlook for the week ahead is most certainly bearish. I’ll up date again with any new trades that might come my way and I’ll be positing my next weekly FTSE analysis at the weekend, so keep checking back and don’t forget to tell your friends, the more the merrier.

First off an apology is in order. I didn’t update with my recent spread betting activity before I went on holiday like I said I would so if you were waiting for my update I apologise. Work was hectic just before I left making sure everything was in place to run smoothly while I was away, plus I had to make sure we were all ready to go on holiday so I just didn’t get the time to update. I’m back now though and here’s an update of what’s been happening while I was away.

You may recall I was going to close all positions while I was away. Well with one thing and another I also did not get time to close them out. Luckily I only had two positions open which I managed to check while I was in Spain. We have some friends out in Spain who have an internet connection and Laptop which is what mad my Spread Betting in Spain possible. There is no way that I could’ve done it otherwise. Anyway I kept an eye on my positions, tweaking stops as necessary. My position in Avocet mining stopped out but my position in Enterprise inns is still in play. Over the coming days and weeks I’ll be looking for new positions to get my self established in the markets again.

I’ll also be doing my FTSE analysis again either today or tomorrow. It doesn’t really matter when as the UK markets are close anyway because of the extra bank holiday for the Queens Jubilee. After that things will get back to normal with my weekly FTSE analysis update at some point each weekend.

Ok that’s all for now. I hope the markets have been kind to you while I’ve been away.

Until next time,
“May the markets be with you!”
Harry,

The Spread Betting Beginner

Another week has flown past so here’s my FTSE 100 Analysis for the weekending 11th May. Another turbulent week what has seen the 20 day EMA just about to cross the 200 day EMA. While this really proves nothing it suggests that the downward move may continue. The new downward move has seen a new recent low setting the scene perfectly for a down trend. I would think the downward move will continue but I have no idea how far or deep it will go. I suspect it will heavily depend on the news events that emerge over the coming weeks. The main thing to watch out for is set to be the whole situation in Greece. If they fail to form a coalition or is the coalition abandons the austerity measures offered by the EU then they will be getting no more bailout money. Personally I don’t blame the EU for taking a hard stance in this as it’s the only way to send a message that the behaviour that caused the mess in Greece will not be tolerated. If Greece then leave the Euro the danger is it sparks a cascading affect and others may also default and exit t the single currency.

Anyway back to the FTSE 100 Analysis. With the EMAs in no clear trending pattern there is no confirmation of the down trend that the price movements have been suggesting. Therefore it’s still not time to only look for down trending stocks so I’ll look for trends in either direction. I probably will not be looking for any new trades this week as I go on holiday at the end of next week and I don’t want to have any trades open while I’m away. It also means that this will be my last weekly FTSE analysis for a while but I’ll get back into it when I return on the 3rd June.

Outlook for the week ahead is bearish.

Today has seen a flurry of spread betting activity from me.(Compared to usual standards at least). I’ve seen a few positions stop out. I’ve trailed a few stops and I’ve also closed out a position manually.

First onto the stop outs. Debenhams stopped out yesterday at 76 giving a loss of around £10. Hardly surprising since the BBC news reports ‘Wettest April hits retail sales’. The stock was doing ok and looked to be returning to the up trend until a couple of days ago when price dropped dramatically. It then continued to drop and hit my stop at 76. It could well be the case that this a retracement of the previous bigger move but I’m not interested in finding out. I’ve been stopped out so it’s time to move on. Interestingly this was the position that I split in my Capital Spreads Vs SpreadCo trial. You’ll be glad to hear that both of my stop prices were met and the positions closed out at the same time almost to the second.

Spirent also stopped out today as the FTSE 100 continues to fall. The position closed at 158 giving a £20 loss. This also looked like it may return to the up trend but then the falls of the last three trading days kicked in and Spirent fell in sympathy with the rest of the market. I have to say I am not confident at all about the state of the FTSE 100 at the moment. My weekly FTSE analysis has indicated that a new down trend could be forming, are we witnessing the start of it?

I closed my position in Dixons today. After looking at the chart this has really failed to return to any up trend that may have been in place. This always was a stock that I need to keep a close eye on and I would exit if I felt it was not performing as planned. So that’s what I did. I closed out for a £0.5 profit, better than a loss. So this was a scratched trade. Another reason for closing this position now is the fact that I am off on holiday at the end of next week and I will not be able to monitor trades while I’m away. I will most likely close out all of my positions before I go so I can safely relax and enjoy my time off without the worry of open spread bets that could go against me.

Finally I trailed stops in my remaining open positions. Enterprise inns is proving to be my star performer at the moment and is currently showing around a £40 profit. It’s also fallen back a bit today in sympathy with the rest of the market. If it falls back a bit more I may look to pyramid again and buy the dip. Avocet mining is coming along nicely, the last few days of falls have taken it with it and it has returned to the down trend which was the reason for going short in the first place. First group is in no mans land at the moment. It currently can’t decide what to do. You would’ve thought with the recent falls in the FTSE it would’ve also fell but no. I’ll keep my eye on it for the next couple of days but if it’s got nowhere by Friday I’ll exit no matter what.

Right that’s all from me to today. Keep an eye out for my FTSE 100 analysis at the weekend.

Until next time,
“May the markets be with you!”
Harry,
The Spread Betting Beginner