July has been a busy month for me. Gold has been taking a hammering over the last few months but I’ve taken the plunge by taking a position on Centamin a few days ago. I bought them at 32p and they’re now at 38p – yes I know I must be mad to buy into a company which is based in Egypt but at least they have real gold in there and the new liberal government should be more business-friendly.


Money is also flooding into Egypt from aid and speculation that the large rises on the stock exchange fueled from foreign investment. Record production and the mine continues to operate as normal, cash and equivalents roughly 10p per share and held out side the country. Unhedged and debt free.


Mr-Alkady-Alsukary CEO & EMRA’s representative- :


-One ton produced in June.
-The same production expected in July.
-No problems with production or export.
-Last Wednesday the latest shipment 580kg was exported.
-Phase 4 expansion is expected to be completed by the end of the year to reach a monthly target of 1.25 tonnes by 2014.
-The petroleum authority supply the mine regularly with diesel.
-Nothing is affecting or reducing production at the moment.
-The purity of the gold produced is 90%, the remaining 10% contains around 5-6% silver.


I can’t possibly say with a hundred percent certainty that there will be no civil war in Egypt, but there is no civil war now despite the recent horrific death toll. The military have been in full control of Egypt for decades, even during the Morsi era as it is now. It is not only the largest army in the Arab world but also the largest in Africa and it is well trained, motivated and equipped (much of the equipment supplied as aid from the US).


So its really just a personal opinion, but I don’t see see Egypt in the same vein as Syria. It’s a different situation.


The majority of Egyptians see the removal of Morsi as a continuation of the revolution, the majority of Egyptians support the military (at least for now). If Morsi had delivered economic stability, maintained diesel, bread and electricity supplies then I strongly suspect that no one (or not many) would have taken to the streets to oust him. Like people in the west the average Egyptian doesn’t care enough about abstract political issues, they care about bread and the value of the money in their pocket, even if they claim otherwise.


The military installing technocrats, accountant types and business people to the top jobs will eventually see a rise in standards and unlike Syria, Egypt enjoys economic support from other Arab countries, the KSA, Kuwait, Libya and others have all given aid and donations of cash and fuel to Egypt. I strongly suspect that these donors will supply more aid aid if needed, it’s in their interests to do so.


The military is the biggest in Africa and the biggest in the Middle East. It is well trained, disciplined, well-armed and motivated even by Western standards. It would take a hellof a lot to beat it in a civil war, much more than the Muslim Brotherhood could muster even drafting fighters from outside given the fact that most Egyptians support the military.


Regardless of what the USA or the EU say in public they will continue to support Egypt given its strategic position and the Suez canal.


All in all there is no civil war now and in my very honest opinion there will be no civil war in the foreseeable future. Egypt has received billions of USD and goods in aid and gifts from other Arab countries. Too many countries want this “coup” to succeed for it to fail. Egypt is keen to settle international court actions asap, and avoid others. The mining concession is law not a contract (or the important part is), stage four expansion is due to be completed early 2014, record quarter on quarter production.


Most of the population welcomed the military action, they see it as the revolution is now back on track.

July 19, 2013 by Harry
Category: blog